minuit.fund

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AXP

HOLD

American Express Company

NYSE · Financial Services · Credit Services

Prix analyse

320,71 USD

2026-09-10

Prix

—

Position

AXP

Quantité

140

Valeur

39 189 €

% NAV

8.08 %

PnL

-308 €

Mark

324,69

Action

Quality credit/spend name with public SWS undervaluation signal, but CPI tomorrow and consumer-cycle beta argue against adds. Hold; trim only if overweight vs book risk.

Stance

cautiously_bullish

Conviction

medium

Horizon

12 mois / event CPI-FOMC

Entrée

cautiously_bearish

Zone

318.2 – 332.17

Stop / invalidation

318.2

Take profit

328.24

Confiance

low

Prix (320.71) < SMA200 (335.52): bias cautiously_bearish. Entry seulement sur reclaim SMA50 ou zone support forte (20j/60j); pas d'add impulsif. Take-profit=328…

Prix (320.71) < SMA200 (335.52): bias cautiously_bearish. Entry seulement sur reclaim SMA50 ou zone support forte (20j/60j); pas d'add impulsif. Take-profit=328.24 (médiane rr/tech/fair, k=2.5 (UV SWS 26.6%), clamp R:R [1–3]).

Narrative

Migration depuis pack-rest / holdings-pack (provisional_public_sws, credit_used=false). Flag portefeuille: hold. SWS undervalued_pct=26.6 (FV=444.11, price_ref=326.16). Quality credit/spend name with public SWS undervaluation signal, but CPI tomorrow and consumer-cycle beta argue against adds. Hold; trim only if overweight vs book risk.

SWS

15

Fair value

444.11

Undervalued %

26.6 %

P/E

—

EV/EBITDA

—

Ouvrir SWS →

TA

cautiously_bearish

RSI

34.55

SMA20

332.68

SMA50

340.4

SMA200

335.52

Dist. SMA50

-5.79 %

Dist. SMA200

-4.42 %

Supports

318.35 · 318.2

Résistances

347.11 · 363.14 · 340.4 · 335.52

Bull

High ROE Excess Returns / narrative still screens discounted vs spot

  • High ROE Excess Returns / narrative still screens discounted vs spot
  • Premium closed-loop franchise + younger cohort spend supports durable earnings power

Bear

Consumer spend / credit-cycle sensitivity into US CPI and slower billed business

  • Consumer spend / credit-cycle sensitivity into US CPI and slower billed business
  • AML/regulatory and Category II capital headlines noted in recent SWS narrative
  • P/E already near fair/peers — less multiple expansion cushion

Risques

  • Consumer spend / credit-cycle sensitivity into US CPI and slower billed businesshigh

    Consumer spend / credit-cycle sensitivity into US CPI and slower billed business

  • AML/regulatory and Category II capital headlines noted in recent SWS narrativemedium

    AML/regulatory and Category II capital headlines noted in recent SWS narrative

  • P/E already near fair/peers — less multiple expansion cushionmedium

    P/E already near fair/peers — less multiple expansion cushion

Opportunités

  • High ROE Excess Returns / narrative still screens discounted vs spotmedium

    High ROE Excess Returns / narrative still screens discounted vs spot

  • Premium closed-loop franchise + younger cohort spend supports durable earnings p…medium

    Premium closed-loop franchise + younger cohort spend supports durable earnings power

News

Alertes

  • medConsumer spend / credit-cycle sensitivity into US CPI 2026-09-11; quality name but cycle beta argues against pre-event adds.
  • lowSWS narrative ~26.6% undervalued (FV $444.11 vs price_ref $326.16 as of 2026-09-06); Excess Returns alt ~20.6% undervalued — but P/E already near fair/peers.
  • medAML/regulatory and Category II capital headlines noted in recent SWS narrative.

Risques

Book: high
  • Modéré–élevéwatch

    Trois familles : technique cassée sous les MM, structure (22 % NAV, bêta crédit), événement (FOMC / inflation / pétrole → spend). Valo SWS plutôt soutenante donc hold/watch, pas un trim automatique.

Contexte book : Book levier 2.72× (stock 484983.91 € / NAV 178315.03 €, cash -306416.16 €) avec EL estimée 58959.39 € — au-dessus des seuils 40 k€ / 25 k€, donc pas Critique EL, mais buffer mince pour une semaine Oman + FOMC. Sentiment pouls = peur (score 32). Trois poches dominantes : CSPX 71.6 % NAV (CAPE ~40,98), BTCWUSD 40.7 % NAV (vol ~40 %), RDDT 30.0 % NAV sous SMA50/SMA200. Risques macro pouls Élevé : pétrole/Hormuz/pipeline Est-Ouest, Fed hike ~87 % +25 pb, inflation sticky (core +0,3 % m/m). Consigne : freeze adds jusqu’après FOMC ; ne pas tailler BTCW pour le P&L FIFO ; CSPX = levier de liquidité seulement si EL menacée.

Surveillance

  • CPI/FOMC
  • écart spot vs FV SWS
  • levier/EL IBKR