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BTCW

HOLD

WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin

EBS · ETP · Cryptocurrency — Bitcoin

Prix analyse

18,41 USD

2026-09-10

Prix

—

Position

BTCWUSD

Quantité

4 490

Valeur

72 642 €

% NAV

14.98 %

PnL

14 669 €

Mark

18,77

Action

HOLD. Do not trim BTCW for the ~+$16k / +24% FIFO gain — user instruction is explicit (no trim BTC for small gains). Do not ADD into CPI/FOMC with EL ~55k€ and ~2.7x leverage. Revi…

HOLD. Do not trim BTCW for the ~+$16k / +24% FIFO gain — user instruction is explicit (no trim BTC for small gains). Do not ADD into CPI/FOMC with EL ~55k€ and ~2.7x leverage. Revisit only on a risk-budget / EL breach (e.g. BTC break of ~$75–76.6k that starts to consume excess liquidity), not on a modest green P&L. Size vs NAV (~42%) is already aggressive; that is a watch item, not an automatic sell.

Stance

neutral

Conviction

medium

Horizon

multi-year asymmetric sleeve; freeze adds/trims into 11–16 Sep 2026 unless risk-budget breach

Entrée

neutral

Zone

13.895 – 17.8274

Stop / invalidation

17.1236

Take profit

19.8854

Confiance

low

Configuration mixte: prix=18.4125 au-dessus des MM mais SMA50≤SMA200; RSI=59.48. Pas d'add impulsif; zone vers SMA200/support. Stop-loss relevé à 17.1236 (max(s…

Configuration mixte: prix=18.4125 au-dessus des MM mais SMA50≤SMA200; RSI=59.48. Pas d'add impulsif; zone vers SMA200/support. Stop-loss relevé à 17.1236 (max(structurel 13.895, spot×0.93=17.1236)). Take-profit=19.8854 (médiane rr/tech/fair, k=1.5 (UV/OV n/a), clamp R:R [1–3]).

Narrative

ETP — Physically backed Bitcoin ETP / ETN (not UCITS). Spot BTC via CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark London Settlement Rate. No coin lending, no staking.. SWS snowflake/undervalued_pct = null (pas d'equity SWS). Flag: hold. HOLD. Do not trim BTCW for the ~+$16k / +24% FIFO gain — user instruction is explicit (no trim BTC for small gains). Do not ADD into CPI/FOMC with EL ~55k€ and ~2.7x leverage. Revisit only on a risk-budget / EL breach (e.g. BTC break of ~$75–76.6k that starts to consume excess liquidity), not on a modest green P&L. Size vs NAV (~42%) is already aggressive; that is a watch item, not an automatic sell.

Détails

Business model

Physically backed Bitcoin ETP / ETN (not UCITS). Spot BTC via CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark London Settlement Rate. No coin lending, no staking.

Growth drivers

  • instrument_type: Physically backed Bitcoin ETP / ETN (not UCITS). Spot BTC via CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark London Settlement Rate. No coin lending, no staking.
  • isin: GB00BJYDH287
  • ter: 0.0015
  • ucits: False

SWS

—

Fair value

—

Undervalued %

—

P/E

—

EV/EBITDA

—

TA

neutral

RSI

59.48

SMA20

17.7194

SMA50

16.2377

SMA200

17.8274

Dist. SMA50

13.39 %

Dist. SMA200

3.28 %

Supports

14.945 · 13.895

Résistances

19.425

Bull

Structural supply still cut (3.125 BTC/block until ~Apr 2028); next halving is the 2028 event, not a 2026 catalyst.

  • Structural supply still cut (3.125 BTC/block until ~Apr 2028); next halving is the 2028 event, not a 2026 catalyst.
  • ~38% off the cited Oct 2025 ATH; dip-buying / under-allocation has been described as putting a floor near $75k.
  • Spot ETF complex is a bid that did not exist in 2018/2022 bears — can cap downside if flows stabilize after CPI/Fed.

Bear

Highest-vol sleeve in a max-margin book: 1y vol ~40%, 1y max DD ~52%. At ~42% of NAV / ~16% of gross, a 30% BTC drop is ~−$25k USD (~−€21k) — on the order of ~40% of stated EL ~55k€.

  • Highest-vol sleeve in a max-margin book: 1y vol ~40%, 1y max DD ~52%. At ~42% of NAV / ~16% of gross, a 30% BTC drop is ~−$25k USD (~−€21k) — on the order of ~40% of stated EL ~55k€.
  • CPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT and FOMC 16 Sep with hike odds >50%: BTC is on the wrong side of a hawkish surprise (stronger USD, higher real yields, risk-premium up).
  • Issuer/custody/ETN structure (Jersey, not UCITS): physically backed, but still product, custodian and tracking-spread risk vs holding coins.

Risques

  • Highest-vol sleeve in a max-margin book: 1y vol ~40%, 1y max DD ~52%. At ~42% of…high

    Highest-vol sleeve in a max-margin book: 1y vol ~40%, 1y max DD ~52%. At ~42% of NAV / ~16% of gross, a 30% BTC drop is ~−$25k USD (~−€21k) — on the order of ~40% of stated EL ~55k€.

  • CPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT and FOMC 16 Sep with hike odds >50%: BTC is on the wrong sid…high

    CPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT and FOMC 16 Sep with hike odds >50%: BTC is on the wrong side of a hawkish surprise (stronger USD, higher real yields, risk-premium up).

  • Issuer/custody/ETN structure (Jersey, not UCITS): physically backed, but still p…medium

    Issuer/custody/ETN structure (Jersey, not UCITS): physically backed, but still product, custodian and tracking-spread risk vs holding coins.

  • YTD −10% / 1y −29% in EUR on justETF: the +24% FIFO gain on this lot is a bounce…medium

    YTD −10% / 1y −29% in EUR on justETF: the +24% FIFO gain on this lot is a bounce inside a down year, not a new cycle high.

  • Fee step-up: MER 0.15% only until 31 Dec 2026, then 0.25%.low

    Fee step-up: MER 0.15% only until 31 Dec 2026, then 0.25%.

Opportunités

  • Structural supply still cut (3.125 BTC/block until ~Apr 2028); next halving is t…medium

    Structural supply still cut (3.125 BTC/block until ~Apr 2028); next halving is the 2028 event, not a 2026 catalyst.

  • ~38% off the cited Oct 2025 ATH; dip-buying / under-allocation has been describe…medium

    ~38% off the cited Oct 2025 ATH; dip-buying / under-allocation has been described as putting a floor near $75k.

  • Spot ETF complex is a bid that did not exist in 2018/2022 bears — can cap downsi…medium

    Spot ETF complex is a bid that did not exist in 2018/2022 bears — can cap downside if flows stabilize after CPI/Fed.

  • August bounce (+~20–25%) shows the sleeve still reprices violently on any dovish…medium

    August bounce (+~20–25%) shows the sleeve still reprices violently on any dovish shift — optionality if CPI undershoots.

  • User rule: do not harvest this as a 'small gain' trim. The +24% FIFO is not a th…medium

    User rule: do not harvest this as a 'small gain' trim. The +24% FIFO is not a thesis change.

News

Alertes

  • high1y vol ~40.41%, 1y max drawdown ~−51.82%; position ~41.8% of NAV / ~16.4% of gross — a 30% BTC drop is on the order of ~40% of stated EL ~55k€.
  • highCPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT and FOMC 16 Sep with hike odds >50%: BTC typically on the wrong side of a hawkish surprise (stronger USD, higher real yields).
  • medJersey physically backed Bitcoin ETP/ETN (not UCITS); MER waived to 0.15% through 31 Dec 2026 then reverts to 0.25%.

Risques

Book: high
  • Élevéwatch

    Deux familles : structure (taille + vol dans un book 2,72×) et événement (FOMC / real yields). Instruction explicite de l’analyse : ne pas tailler BTCW pour le gain FIFO ; pas d’add ; watch des 75–76,6 k$.

Contexte book : Book levier 2.72× (stock 484983.91 € / NAV 178315.03 €, cash -306416.16 €) avec EL estimée 58959.39 € — au-dessus des seuils 40 k€ / 25 k€, donc pas Critique EL, mais buffer mince pour une semaine Oman + FOMC. Sentiment pouls = peur (score 32). Trois poches dominantes : CSPX 71.6 % NAV (CAPE ~40,98), BTCWUSD 40.7 % NAV (vol ~40 %), RDDT 30.0 % NAV sous SMA50/SMA200. Risques macro pouls Élevé : pétrole/Hormuz/pipeline Est-Ouest, Fed hike ~87 % +25 pb, inflation sticky (core +0,3 % m/m). Consigne : freeze adds jusqu’après FOMC ; ne pas tailler BTCW pour le P&L FIFO ; CSPX = levier de liquidité seulement si EL menacée.

Surveillance

  • CPI/FOMC
  • EL/levier IBKR
  • position weight vs NAV