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CSPX

HOLD

iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc)

LSEETF · ETF · Equity — US Large Cap

Prix analyse

820,57 USD

2026-09-10

Prix

—

Position

CSPX

Quantité

179

Valeur

127 698 €

% NAV

26.33 %

PnL

1 137 €

Mark

827,49

Action

Do not ADD: starting CAPE is extreme, the book already has stacked S&P/mega-cap beta, leverage is maxed, and CPI is tomorrow. Do not TRIM for P&L: FIFO is essentially flat (−$88 / …

Do not ADD: starting CAPE is extreme, the book already has stacked S&P/mega-cap beta, leverage is maxed, and CPI is tomorrow. Do not TRIM for P&L: FIFO is essentially flat (−$88 / −0.09%). Trim CSPX only as a liquidity/delever tool if EL is at risk into the print — it is the most liquid, lowest-vol sleeve, not a 'take profit' name. Core hold otherwise.

Stance

cautiously_bearish

Conviction

medium

Horizon

core multi-year sleeve; tactical freeze into 11–16 Sep 2026

Entrée

bullish_deeper_pullback

Zone

817.57 – 819.24

Stop / invalidation

817.57

Take profit

829.57

Confiance

medium

Structure haussière (prix>SMA50>SMA200) mais RSI14=44.89 < 45: pullback plus profond. Zone près SMA50 / support 20j; invalidation sous min 20j. Take-profit=829.…

Structure haussière (prix>SMA50>SMA200) mais RSI14=44.89 < 45: pullback plus profond. Zone près SMA50 / support 20j; invalidation sous min 20j. Take-profit=829.57 (médiane rr/tech/fair, k=1.5 (UV/OV n/a), clamp R:R [1–3]).

Narrative

ETF — UCITS ETF — physical full-replication, accumulating, unhedged USD. SWS snowflake/undervalued_pct = null (pas d'equity SWS). Flag: hold. Do not ADD: starting CAPE is extreme, the book already has stacked S&P/mega-cap beta, leverage is maxed, and CPI is tomorrow. Do not TRIM for P&L: FIFO is essentially flat (−$88 / −0.09%). Trim CSPX only as a liquidity/delever tool if EL is at risk into the print — it is the most liquid, lowest-vol sleeve, not a 'take profit' name. Core hold otherwise.

Détails

Business model

UCITS ETF — physical full-replication, accumulating, unhedged USD

Growth drivers

  • instrument_type: UCITS ETF — physical full-replication, accumulating, unhedged USD
  • isin: IE00B5BMR087
  • ter: 0.0007
  • ucits: True

SWS

—

Fair value

—

Undervalued %

—

P/E

30.25

EV/EBITDA

—

TA

bullish_deeper_pullback

RSI

44.89

SMA20

830.71

SMA50

819.24

SMA200

769.32

Dist. SMA50

0.16 %

Dist. SMA200

6.66 %

Supports

817.57 · 785.52

Résistances

842.76

Bull

Best-in-class core vehicle: TER 0.07%, physical, accumulating, ~$155bn share-class, 3y beta 1.00 — cheapest way to keep US large-cap beta.

  • Best-in-class core vehicle: TER 0.07%, physical, accumulating, ~$155bn share-class, 3y beta 1.00 — cheapest way to keep US large-cap beta.
  • Forward PE ~20–22x vs trailing ~26–30x: if 2026–27 EPS is delivered, the multiple can deflate without a crash.
  • YTD NAV TR +12.3% USD; 52w range 681–840, NAV 823 — not a blow-off print, a rich grind. Dips toward the 52w mid are better add zones than here.

Bear

CAPE ~41 and iShares look-through PE 30.3x / P/B 5.66x: historically poor starting multiples for 7–10y real returns; a valuation squeeze does not need a recession.

  • CAPE ~41 and iShares look-through PE 30.3x / P/B 5.66x: historically poor starting multiples for 7–10y real returns; a valuation squeeze does not need a recession.
  • Book is max-margin / ~2.5–2.7x: CSPX is ~51% of NAV and ~20% of gross, stacked on mega-cap S&P names already held — a US gap-down hits EL (~55k€) twice.
  • CPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT then FOMC 15–16 Sep; oil >$100 and a hawkish path are the live left-tail for duration-sensitive large-cap growth.

Risques

  • CAPE ~41 and iShares look-through PE 30.3x / P/B 5.66x: historically poor starti…medium

    CAPE ~41 and iShares look-through PE 30.3x / P/B 5.66x: historically poor starting multiples for 7–10y real returns; a valuation squeeze does not need a recession.

  • Book is max-margin / ~2.5–2.7x: CSPX is ~51% of NAV and ~20% of gross, stacked o…high

    Book is max-margin / ~2.5–2.7x: CSPX is ~51% of NAV and ~20% of gross, stacked on mega-cap S&P names already held — a US gap-down hits EL (~55k€) twice.

  • CPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT then FOMC 15–16 Sep; oil >$100 and a hawkish path are the li…high

    CPI 11 Sep 14:30 PT then FOMC 15–16 Sep; oil >$100 and a hawkish path are the live left-tail for duration-sensitive large-cap growth.

  • USD unhedged for a EUR NAV: dollar drop is an extra hit on top of price.medium

    USD unhedged for a EUR NAV: dollar drop is an extra hit on top of price.

  • IT ~38% of the ETF (09 Sep): concentration in the same AI/mega-cap complex as th…medium

    IT ~38% of the ETF (09 Sep): concentration in the same AI/mega-cap complex as the single-stock book.

Opportunités

  • Best-in-class core vehicle: TER 0.07%, physical, accumulating, ~$155bn share-cla…medium

    Best-in-class core vehicle: TER 0.07%, physical, accumulating, ~$155bn share-class, 3y beta 1.00 — cheapest way to keep US large-cap beta.

  • Forward PE ~20–22x vs trailing ~26–30x: if 2026–27 EPS is delivered, the multipl…medium

    Forward PE ~20–22x vs trailing ~26–30x: if 2026–27 EPS is delivered, the multiple can deflate without a crash.

  • YTD NAV TR +12.3% USD; 52w range 681–840, NAV 823 — not a blow-off print, a rich…medium

    YTD NAV TR +12.3% USD; 52w range 681–840, NAV 823 — not a blow-off print, a rich grind. Dips toward the 52w mid are better add zones than here.

  • If CPI/Fed surprise dovish (or hike-odds collapse), this is the sleeve that re-r…medium

    If CPI/Fed surprise dovish (or hike-odds collapse), this is the sleeve that re-rates first alongside mega-caps.

News

Alertes

  • highShiller CAPE ~40.98 on 2026-09-09 (~2.35x long-run mean ~17.42); iShares look-through PE 30.25x / P/B 5.66x as of 2026-09-09.
  • highCSPX ~50.8% of NAV and ~20% of gross in a ~2.5–2.7x leveraged IBKR book; stacks on mega-cap S&P singles already held.
  • medUS CPI release 2026-09-11 14:30 Europe/Paris then FOMC 15–16 Sep — event risk for duration-sensitive large-cap growth.

Risques

Book: high
  • Élevéfreeze_adds

    Valo extrême + taille de poche + événement FOMC/oil = 3 familles. La TA n’est pas cassée (mark 827,49 > 817,57). Consigne analyse : hold / pas d’add ; tailler seulement pour défendre l’EL.

Contexte book : Book levier 2.72× (stock 484983.91 € / NAV 178315.03 €, cash -306416.16 €) avec EL estimée 58959.39 € — au-dessus des seuils 40 k€ / 25 k€, donc pas Critique EL, mais buffer mince pour une semaine Oman + FOMC. Sentiment pouls = peur (score 32). Trois poches dominantes : CSPX 71.6 % NAV (CAPE ~40,98), BTCWUSD 40.7 % NAV (vol ~40 %), RDDT 30.0 % NAV sous SMA50/SMA200. Risques macro pouls Élevé : pétrole/Hormuz/pipeline Est-Ouest, Fed hike ~87 % +25 pb, inflation sticky (core +0,3 % m/m). Consigne : freeze adds jusqu’après FOMC ; ne pas tailler BTCW pour le P&L FIFO ; CSPX = levier de liquidité seulement si EL menacée.

Surveillance

  • CPI/FOMC
  • EL/levier IBKR
  • position weight vs NAV