minuit.fund

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RDDT

HOLD

Reddit, Inc.

NYSE · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Prix analyse

155,34 USD

2026-09-10

Prix

—

Position

RDDT

Quantité

393

Valeur

53 455 €

% NAV

11.02 %

PnL

1 113 €

Mark

157,77

Action

Public SWS narrative shows deep undervaluation, but P/E checks and value score disagree. Per brief: growth/vol name under 2.7x leverage → hold/trim bias, not add. Pre-CPI: no add; trim only if overweight.

Stance

neutral

Conviction

medium

Horizon

12 mois / event CPI-FOMC

Entrée

cautiously_bearish

Zone

135.22 – 167.05

Stop / invalidation

144.47

Take profit

187.95

Confiance

low

Prix (155.34) < SMA200 (174.02): bias cautiously_bearish. Entry seulement sur reclaim SMA50 ou zone support forte (20j/60j); pas d'add impulsif. Stop-loss relev…

Prix (155.34) < SMA200 (174.02): bias cautiously_bearish. Entry seulement sur reclaim SMA50 ou zone support forte (20j/60j); pas d'add impulsif. Stop-loss relevé à 144.47 (max(structurel 135.22, spot×0.93=144.47)). Take-profit=187.95 (médiane rr/tech/fair, k=2.5 (UV SWS 53.3%), clamp R:R [1–3]).

Narrative

Migration depuis pack-rest / holdings-pack (provisional_public_sws, credit_used=false). Flag portefeuille: hold. SWS undervalued_pct=53.3 (FV=309.77, price_ref=144.64). Public SWS narrative shows deep undervaluation, but P/E checks and value score disagree. Per brief: growth/vol name under 2.7x leverage → hold/trim bias, not add. Pre-CPI: no add; trim only if overweight.

SWS

—

Fair value

309.77

Undervalued %

53.3 %

P/E

—

EV/EBITDA

—

Ouvrir SWS →

TA

cautiously_bearish

RSI

48.85

SMA20

155.19

SMA50

168.74

SMA200

174.02

Dist. SMA50

-7.94 %

Dist. SMA200

-10.74 %

Supports

143.47 · 135.22

Résistances

184.28 · 208.05 · 168.74 · 174.02

Bull

DAU/ad-impression growth narrative supports large DCF/narrative gap if execution holds

  • DAU/ad-impression growth narrative supports large DCF/narrative gap if execution holds
  • Pullback YTD leaves optionality if engagement and monetisation re-accelerate

Bear

Growth/volatility name — leverage amplifies drawdowns; default bias not to add

  • Growth/volatility name — leverage amplifies drawdowns; default bias not to add
  • Ad/monetisation + AI licensing/search-referral uncertainty
  • Earnings multiples still rich vs peers/fair PE in SWS checks

Risques

  • Growth/volatility name — leverage amplifies drawdowns; default bias not to addhigh

    Growth/volatility name — leverage amplifies drawdowns; default bias not to add

  • Ad/monetisation + AI licensing/search-referral uncertaintymedium

    Ad/monetisation + AI licensing/search-referral uncertainty

  • Earnings multiples still rich vs peers/fair PE in SWS checksmedium

    Earnings multiples still rich vs peers/fair PE in SWS checks

Opportunités

  • DAU/ad-impression growth narrative supports large DCF/narrative gap if execution…medium

    DAU/ad-impression growth narrative supports large DCF/narrative gap if execution holds

  • Pullback YTD leaves optionality if engagement and monetisation re-acceleratemedium

    Pullback YTD leaves optionality if engagement and monetisation re-accelerate

News

Alertes

  • medSWS most-popular narrative shows 53.3% undervalued (FV $309.77 vs price_ref $144.64 as of 2026-09-02), but P/E checks / value score disagree (alt DCF 49.8% undervalued with valuation checks only 2/6).
  • highGrowth/volatility name in a ~2.7x leveraged book into US CPI — default bias not to add; lean trim if oversized.
  • medAd/monetisation and AI licensing/search-referral uncertainty flagged in provisional public SWS notes.

Risques

Book: high
  • Élevéwatch

    Trois familles : technique (sous SMA50 et SMA200), structure (30 % NAV, nom vol), événement (FOMC + crowding retail). Valo SWS divergente donc exclue. Pas d’add ; trim seulement si overweight vs budget de risque.

Contexte book : Book levier 2.72× (stock 484983.91 € / NAV 178315.03 €, cash -306416.16 €) avec EL estimée 58959.39 € — au-dessus des seuils 40 k€ / 25 k€, donc pas Critique EL, mais buffer mince pour une semaine Oman + FOMC. Sentiment pouls = peur (score 32). Trois poches dominantes : CSPX 71.6 % NAV (CAPE ~40,98), BTCWUSD 40.7 % NAV (vol ~40 %), RDDT 30.0 % NAV sous SMA50/SMA200. Risques macro pouls Élevé : pétrole/Hormuz/pipeline Est-Ouest, Fed hike ~87 % +25 pb, inflation sticky (core +0,3 % m/m). Consigne : freeze adds jusqu’après FOMC ; ne pas tailler BTCW pour le P&L FIFO ; CSPX = levier de liquidité seulement si EL menacée.

Surveillance

  • CPI/FOMC
  • écart spot vs FV SWS
  • levier/EL IBKR