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TSLA

HOLD

Tesla, Inc.

NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Prix analyse

363,56 USD

2026-09-10

Prix

—

Position

TSLA

Quantité

135

Valeur

42 532 €

% NAV

8.77 %

PnL

2 847 €

Mark

365,44

Action

SWS most-followed narrative ~18% overvalued (FV $300 vs $354.08 on 2026-09-05). High-beta name in a ~2.7x IBKR book ahead of US CPI — no add; trim only if position is overweight vs risk budget.

Stance

cautiously_bullish

Conviction

medium

Horizon

12 mois / event CPI-FOMC

Entrée

cautiously_bearish

Zone

297.38 – 355.7

Stop / invalidation

338.11

Take profit

413.48

Confiance

low

Prix < SMA200 (399.05) mais reclaim SMA50 en cours — entry prudente uniquement. Pas d'add impulsif sous levier. Stop-loss relevé à 338.11 (max(structurel 297.38…

Prix < SMA200 (399.05) mais reclaim SMA50 en cours — entry prudente uniquement. Pas d'add impulsif sous levier. Stop-loss relevé à 338.11 (max(structurel 297.38, spot×0.93=338.11)). Take-profit=413.48 (médiane rr/tech/fair, k=1.2 (OV SWS -18%), clamp R:R [1–3]).

Narrative

Migration depuis pack-rest / holdings-pack (provisional_public_sws, credit_used=false). Flag portefeuille: hold. SWS undervalued_pct=-18.0 (FV=300.0, price_ref=354.08). SWS most-followed narrative ~18% overvalued (FV $300 vs $354.08 on 2026-09-05). High-beta name in a ~2.7x IBKR book ahead of US CPI — no add; trim only if position is overweight vs risk budget.

SWS

12

Fair value

300

Undervalued %

-18 %

P/E

—

EV/EBITDA

—

Ouvrir SWS →

TA

cautiously_bearish

RSI

53.74

SMA20

353.86

SMA50

355.7

SMA200

399.05

Dist. SMA50

2.21 %

Dist. SMA200

-8.89 %

Supports

325.24 · 297.38

Résistances

384.04 · 432.86 · 399.05

Bull

Autonomy/physical-AI optionality if Cybercab economics prove out

  • Autonomy/physical-AI optionality if Cybercab economics prove out
  • Energy + FSD software mix can re-rate if delivery clarity improves

Bear

High beta + ~2.7x book magnifies CPI/drawdown risk

  • High beta + ~2.7x book magnifies CPI/drawdown risk
  • Robotaxi/Optimus narrative still execution- and regulation-dependent
  • Rich multiples vs auto peers (SWS PS vs fair ratio historically stretched)

Risques

  • High beta + ~2.7x book magnifies CPI/drawdown riskhigh

    High beta + ~2.7x book magnifies CPI/drawdown risk

  • Robotaxi/Optimus narrative still execution- and regulation-dependentmedium

    Robotaxi/Optimus narrative still execution- and regulation-dependent

  • Rich multiples vs auto peers (SWS PS vs fair ratio historically stretched)medium

    Rich multiples vs auto peers (SWS PS vs fair ratio historically stretched)

Opportunités

  • Autonomy/physical-AI optionality if Cybercab economics prove outmedium

    Autonomy/physical-AI optionality if Cybercab economics prove out

  • Energy + FSD software mix can re-rate if delivery clarity improvesmedium

    Energy + FSD software mix can re-rate if delivery clarity improves

News

Alertes

  • highSWS most-popular narrative ~18% overvalued (FV $300 vs price_ref $354.08 as of 2026-09-05); spot ~$363.56 on 2026-09-10.
  • highHigh-beta name in ~2.7x IBKR book ahead of US CPI 2026-09-11 — no add; trim only if overweight vs risk budget.
  • medRobotaxi/Optimus narrative still execution- and regulation-dependent per public SWS/news notes.

Risques

Book: high
  • Élevéfreeze_adds

    Quatre familles : valo (SWS −18 %), technique (sous SMA200), structure (high-beta 23,9 % NAV sous 2,72×), événement (FOMC / yields). Freeze adds ; trim seulement si overweight vs budget.

Contexte book : Book levier 2.72× (stock 484983.91 € / NAV 178315.03 €, cash -306416.16 €) avec EL estimée 58959.39 € — au-dessus des seuils 40 k€ / 25 k€, donc pas Critique EL, mais buffer mince pour une semaine Oman + FOMC. Sentiment pouls = peur (score 32). Trois poches dominantes : CSPX 71.6 % NAV (CAPE ~40,98), BTCWUSD 40.7 % NAV (vol ~40 %), RDDT 30.0 % NAV sous SMA50/SMA200. Risques macro pouls Élevé : pétrole/Hormuz/pipeline Est-Ouest, Fed hike ~87 % +25 pb, inflation sticky (core +0,3 % m/m). Consigne : freeze adds jusqu’après FOMC ; ne pas tailler BTCW pour le P&L FIFO ; CSPX = levier de liquidité seulement si EL menacée.

Surveillance

  • CPI/FOMC
  • écart spot vs FV SWS
  • levier/EL IBKR